Generally speaking, summer is the traditional low season for LPG consumption, but the spot price in the second quarter has basically been at the bottom, and the market bottomed out early. Therefore, it is expected that the rebound in the market may come early.
The picture shows the main contract daily line of LPG
The price of CP in July was slightly higher than market expectations, superimposed on the gradual recovery of the global economy, and the price of crude oil fluctuated upward, which gave a certain boost to the domestic liquefied gas market. At present, the market chemical demand is steadily increasing, and the price of liquefied gas is ready to rebound.
CP price is released in July
Saudi Aramco announced the CP price in July 2020. Propane was US$360/ton, an increase of US$10/ton from the previous month; butane was US$340/ton, an increase of US$10/ton from the previous month. The landed cost of propane is about 2827 yuan/ton, and that of butane is about 2671 yuan/ton, which is slightly higher than the market consensus, which brings certain support. Recently, the domestic liquefied gas market has shown an upward trend, and both civil gas and raw gas have risen to varying degrees. Take the southern China benchmark area as an example. The southern China market has risen strongly in the past week, and reduced supply and expected reduced supply are the main benefits.
In addition, the stabilization and upward trend of international oil prices also gave a certain boost to the liquefied gas market. At the same time, due to the lack of plans for import to ship in July and the support of high import costs, importers have a strong willingness to reverse profit losses.
Supply growth is expected to slow down
From January to June 2020, the total domestic production of liquefied gas will be 10,552,900 tons, a year-on-year decrease of 1,523,600 tons. On the one hand, it was due to the impact of the domestic new crown pneumonia epidemic; on the other hand, in February, many domestic refineries shut down for maintenance, and there was a significant decline in supply. At the end of March, with the effective control of the domestic epidemic and the low international crude oil prices, considerable processing profits promoted the resumption of refineries one after another, and the operating load steadily increased. Domestic liquefied gas supply increased slightly in the second quarter.
In terms of deep processing operations, from January to June 2020, the average operating rate of domestic MTBE units was 35%, a year-on-year decrease of 13 percentage points; the average operating rate of domestic alkylation units was 39.3%, a year-on-year decrease of 2.9 percentage points. According to statistics from Longzhong Information, as of July 16, 40 of the 63 alkylation plants nationwide were in operation, with an average operating rate of about 42%; 9 propane dehydrogenation (PDH plant) plants nationwide , The operating rate is 93.1%. At present, the operating rate of deep processing is basically at a high level, with limited room for improvement in the later period, and the supply growth rate is expected to slow down.
From January to June, the domestic consumption of liquefied gas reached 24,546,500 tons. Although the consumption in May was nearly 5 million tons, there was a big improvement from the beginning of the year, but it was still lower than the same period last year. At present, domestic demand is gradually recovering, and it is expected that the overall market demand for LPG in the second half of the year will be better than that of the first half.
In the later period, imports gradually increased
According to customs data, from January to May 2020, domestic imports of LPG totaled 7,531,200 tons, a decrease of 22.91% from the same period last year; exports were 378,800 tons, with little change from the same period last year. The decline in imports was mainly due to the impact of the epidemic, the decline in domestic demand and the greater risk of imports. From the perspective of import source countries, starting from April, the United States has re-entered the list of my country's import source countries, and the total imports from the United States reached 733,400 tons in May, the highest proportion. It is expected that my country's import volume will increase steadily in the later period, and in the absence of surprises, US imports will continue to occupy the top position in the export list to China.
The current domestic supply gap still exists and needs to be filled by imports. If we continue to import American sources in the future, the tight supply situation can be eased to a certain extent.
To sum up, the current domestic production and living order has basically returned to normal, and the demand for liquefied gas for civilian use and chemical industry has steadily increased. At the same time, a number of alkane dehydrogenation units will be put into operation in the second half of the year, which will boost the demand for liquefied gas chemical industry. The price rebound of liquefied petroleum gas is ready to go. However, since the main 2011 contract of liquefied gas futures has a long time from the delivery month, it is necessary to pay attention to sudden negative factors that may occur during the period.
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